Planning Fallacy: what to know about the brain when planning for the year ahead
In my work as a neuroeducator, I come across stories about our miraculous mind that fire my curiosity. Every week, I share my thoughts about how to work smart to amplify your organic potential, develop a growth mindset, and foster your brain health. I hope you enjoy them! (scroll down to read more)
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The New Year is off with a bang, and once again we have a fresh new calendar year ahead. Vision board parties and resolutions are plentiful, but in reality a full 43% of people expect to fail at their New Year’s resolutions before February.
As it turns out, only 9% of people succeed with their efforts to start fresh in the New Year.
So, why is it so difficult?
Planning fallacy plays a large role.
“The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.” -Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman
Planning fallacy is one of the most destructive brain biases that sabotage us when pursuing our goals. This cognitive bias is our tendency to under-forecast pitfalls. While staying positive is a crucial motivator, underestimating the amount of time, cost, and risks is one of the most common mistakes made when planning for the future.
Additionally, our brain is wired against change, which impacts future planning and healthy habits in the following ways:
Habitual Behavior and Routine
The brain tends to favor habitual behaviors and routines because they require less mental effort. Planning for the new year often involves breaking existing habits or establishing new ones, which requires conscious effort and cognitive resources. This can be mentally taxing, making it harder to initiate and sustain the planning process.
Essentially, we operate on autopilot using habits that don’t foster positive change and those habits are hard to break.
Strategy to consider: Create manageable goals, considering the brain's natural tendencies.
Delay Discounting
The brain tends to prioritize immediate rewards over delayed ones, a phenomenon known as delay discounting. When setting long-term goals for the new year, the perceived rewards may seem distant and less motivating compared to immediate pleasures or existing habits. This can lead to procrastination or difficulty committing to long-term plans. In other words, present bias subverts future achievement. Our desire for instant gratification often sabotages the long game.
Strategy to consider: If you feel like procrastinating or resist committing, recognize this is normal and your brain’s way to conserve resources for its survival programming. Commit to starting.
Stress and Fatigue of our “Executive Brain”
The prefrontal cortex is responsible for higher-order cognitive functions, such as planning, decision-making, and goal-setting. However, this area of the brain is susceptible to stress and fatigue. During the holiday season, people may experience increased stress, which can impair the prefrontal cortex's ability to engage in thoughtful planning and goal-setting.
Strategies to consider: Incorporate strategies to minimize stress and decision fatigue. Simplify. Make sure you are rested and fresh when planning for the new year. If you feel mental fatigue, take a break.
Motivation Dips in Brain Chemicals
Neurotransmitters such as dopamine play a crucial role in motivation and reward processing. The excitement and motivation associated with setting new year's resolutions are often driven by a surge in dopamine levels. However, these levels can fluctuate, leading to a decrease in motivation over time, making it challenging to stick to the initially planned goals. Essentially once your dopamine levels revert to more normal levels, your motivation dips accordingly.
Strategy to consider: Incorporate rewards along the way to celebrate milestones as you progress.
Mental Overload
The process of planning for the new year involves making numerous decisions, each of which consumes cognitive resources. As individuals face decision fatigue, their ability to make thoughtful, strategic choices diminishes. This can lead to impulsivity or avoidance of planning altogether.
Strategy to consider: Don’t bite off more than you can chew while planning. Consider monthly or quarterly planning sessions to re-evaluate and adjust to take the pressure off. Consider sprints in managing your projects, rather than belaboring the details for the year.
Social Distraction
The brain is highly influenced by social and environmental cues. During the holiday season, individuals may be surrounded by external stimuli, such as festive gatherings, that emphasize immediate gratification rather than long-term planning. Social pressures and norms can also influence goal-setting behavior.
Strategy to Consider: Recognize the benefits of social interactions, but be wary of letting them become too distracting.
Understanding our innate biases can help individuals approach new year's planning with realistic expectations and increase your odds of success. Pairing knowledge of how your mind works with strategies to overcome cognitive biases may be the learning and habit combination that best launches you into the 90th+ percentile in 2024. Just dismantling one barrier may have the potential to put you into that elite percentage.
“You can learn to unlimit and expand your mindset, your motivation, and your methods to create a limitless life. When you do what others won’t, you can live how others can’t.” - Jim Kwik
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